Researches :: Methods of mathematical modeling and computing experiment for maintenance of durability of materials and constructions, safety of complex systems and objects

Statistical estimation of risks of nature and man-caused Emergency Situations (ES) in Krasnoyarsk Region is carried out. The region has a wide spectrum of sources of danger resulting in occurrence of Emergency Situations. They include chemically dangerous objects, large metallurgical manufactures, storehouses of mineral oil, dams of hydroelectric power station, large railway junctions, nature disasters, etc.
The analysis of the statistics has shown a rather characteristic picture of ES risks. The main part (up to 90%) of economic losses is caused by risks of nature ES. The quantity of the nature risk is at a level of 2.2·10² roubles per man a year. The greatest part are risks of freshet and storm flooding (1.8·10² roubles/man a year). The risk connected with man-caused Emergency Situations is at a level 25 roubles/man a year. Thus a man-caused risk in the region is higher than in Moscow. The risk of nature ES in the region is comparable to the average nature risk in Russia (see fig.).
The individual risk is characterized by the following parameters. The risk of destruction is at a level of 1.9·10^-5 man a year, the risk of injuring is 5.9·10^-5 man a year, the risk of infringement of life conditions — 4.8·10^-3 man a year. To compare, the risk of death from murders in the region is 3.2·10^-4man a year, suicides — 2.6·10^-5 man a year, alcoholic poisonings — 2.4·10^-4 man a year (fig.). The risk of destruction in ES in the region exceeds the level of acceptable risk recommended by the European norms.

The diagram of economic damage risks (roubles/man a year)

The comparison of risks of loss of life for different reasons in Krasnoyarsk Region (A — murders, B — suicides, C — alcoholic poisonings, D — motor transport, E — Emergency Situations)
The scientific concept determining strategic directions of the reduction of threats at a regional level is developed to solve a complex and multidimensional problem of the reduction of the nature and man-caused ES risk. In view of it a complex of program actions submitted in the project of the regional target program «Reduction of risks and Mitigation of the Consequences of Nature and Man-caused Emergency Situations in Krasnoyarsk Region till 2005» is created. The structure of a complex of actions is determined in view of the carried out estimations of risks in the region, suggestions of Central Administrative Board of Civil Defense and Emergency Situations, the Yenisei district of Gosgortekhnadzor, and other organizations and institutes. The main objective of this program is the reduction of risks and mitigation of the consequences of nature and man-caused Emergency Situations in Krasnoyarsk Region, the increase of the level of protection of the population and territories from Emergency Situations. The solution of the following primary goals is supposed to achieve the objective:

Formation of the normative-legal and methodical base to maintain the state regulation and normalization of risks of Emergency Situations;
Creation and development of scientific — methodical bases of management of risks in Emergency Situations;
Development of economic mechanisms of regulation of activity on the reduction of risks and mitigation of the consequences of Emergency Situations;
Perfection of the system of insurance protection of the population and regional and municipal property;
Perfection of the system of rescue of the population in Emergency Situations;
Creation and development of systems of forecasting and monitoring of Emergency Situations;
Development of systems of information supply and automated management, perfection of systems of communication and notification of the population about Emergency Situations;
Perfection of the material support of the activity on the reduction of risks and mitigation of the consequences of Emergency Situations;
Perfection of the system of preparation of experts in management of risks of Emergency Situations, and preparation of the population for actions in Emergency Situations.

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